The media here continue to run by us the names of a range of players in the Fiji affair, particularly in Speight's camp, and speculate on which of them may be calling the shots etc. As I have commented previously, most of these seem to be relatively minor figures, who in the normal course of events would probably never have come to widespread national notice, let alone international note, and certainly I have no information about them. My previous postings have been those of an anthropologist/historian, not a political analyst, which I am not. But when dealing with things Fijian, tradition, hierarchy, and history are always there, like Banquo's ghost at the feast, and focussing on them may provide at least some glimpses of solidity in the swirling fogs.

On ABC news here this morning Commodore Bainimarama was quoted as saying that they would at last proceed to appoint a government that would resume normal business in other premises. This is something they probably should have done weeks ago, since it would make Speight and his gang irrelevant. They would just be a bunch of people illegally occupying Parliament House and holding a group they have kidnapped, with no chance of influencing anything since the world has moved on. Tough on the hostages, who share incarceration with the kidnappers, but the very fact that it would make their murder totally irrelevant would probably also make it less likely.

There seems to me to be one likely reason why the military have not taken this course before now. In the eyes of the world, they have of course not shown themselves to be models of decisiveness or consistency, and were lives not at stake the whole affair would seem like a Restoration farce. But I think the presence of Adi Koila among the hostages has had far greater significance than credited in any of the reports I have seen. One of the things many Westerners don't fully understand is that Fijian women derive their status from their lineage far more than from their spouses, so high-ranking women are as important to Fijians as are high-ranking men. So her significance in this affair has not been so much the sentimental aspect of her being Ratu Mara's daughter, but rather that she derives very high assigned status from both him and her mother, making her one of the highest-ranking women in Fiji. From the viewpoint of the military, still thinking first as Fijians and only second as strategists, her welfare must always have been more critical than that of any of the other hostages. They couldn't put her life at risk, but now that she has been freed they just might feel less constrained in respect of the other hostages if it comes to a showdown.

This would account for the fairly significant change in mood of Bainimarama et al since Adi Koila and the three other women were released (none of them has anything like her importance). While Speight and his gang expressed the pathetic intention that the release of the women would show the world that they aren't gangsters (or words to that effect), I was astonished that they would throw away the Joker in their pack, just BEFORE taking the final trick. Perhaps it is that, despite their much-publicised kava drinking (perhaps because of it!) and other ceremonial displays, they really aren't reading from the same page of Fijian tradition as the military still clearly are. Not, perhaps, surprising in the case of the marginal figure Speight, but moreso of some of the others in his group. But the fact that the military called off the negotiation 'game' almost immediately after the women were released seems to suggest that they felt they could now start dealing themselves a whole new hand.

That's really about all I can say about present events. None of the above, of course, suggests that the kidnappers may not cause further havoc before finally exiting. As to what will finally happen, your guess is as good as mine (or, I would suspect, as Speight's or Bainimarama's!)

Rod Ewins © June 2000. This essay is copyright. Apart from those uses permitted under theCopyright Act 1968 (as amended), no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the author.